Poll ballots - Week 8

As a pollster for the Buffalo News, I'm asked to send in my weekly ballots ranking the top ten large and small schools.  The polls are based on games played through Sunday of each week.  Here's a look at how I see them and some of the rationale used to get there.

 

Week 1     Week 2     Week 3     Week 4      Week 5      Week 6      Week 7

 

Large Schools

1. Niagara Falls (AA) - Could Wednesday's game against Lew-Port be its last in the NFL?  I hope so.  Could Friday's game at St. Joe's be its first loss?  I'll be there to find out.

2. Jamestown (AA) - Bounced back on Saturday night with a most impressive showing against the only team to blemish its league record and clinched ECIC I. 

3. Williamsville South (A1) - The Billies started slowly in home games this week with the Flames and Tigers, but turned it on down the stretch. 

4. St. Joe's (MMAA) - I'm keeping them here this week, but they're likely to be on the move next week.  A loss to Canisius could move them down, a win could move them up, and a win against Falls could put them on an escalator heading straight to the top.

5. Canisius (MMAA) - Loss in overtime at Bishop Kearney will have the Crusaders extra irritable come Tuesday night when they battle for a share of the Monsignor Martin league title.

6. East (A2) - The Panthers and Macks split regular season meetings and each lost one other game in the Yale Cup.  So when I came to this spot in the poll, I decided to flip a coin for it.  Heads it's East, Tails it's McKinley.  When I tossed the coin in the air, Starling Bryant snagged it out of the air and said " heads it is".

7. McKinley (AA) -  Alright, I'll explain my logic.  East lost closer to Hutch Tech than McKinley lost to Bennett, and for as great as the Macks win over Riverside was last week, the Frontiers helped that to happen.  The Panthers have also been slightly more impressive throughout the Yale Cup schedule.

8. Lancaster (AA) - The Redskins put two strong showings together against Jamestown and won their most recent meeting with the Spartans.   They need to finish the regular season strong and enter sectionals on a winning streak.

9. Maryvale (A2) - ECIC III champs again and winners of nine straight as of Sunday. 

10. Williamsville North (AA) - The Spartans are the only team in WNY besides Falls, to beat Jamestown so far this season.  They also split the head-to-head with Lancaster, who I have ahead of them right now.  If North avenges its loss to Frontier on Tuesday, they will be the three seed in Class AA.

 

Small Schools

1. I-Prep at Grover (C) - The Presidents can clinch the first ever Yale Cup for the new Division II with a win at MST Seneca on Tuesday night.  I think if they do, we should take Monday off and call it President's Day.

2. Dunkirk (B1) - Who have they beat?  You mean besides every team they've played?  They aren't just beating teams, they're throttling them.  The Marauders have won their 16 games by an average of 28.56 points (yes, I did the math).  

3. St. Mary's (MMAA) - The Lancers schedule was so front-loaded this season, that the nonleague game with Cleveland Hill (who beat Maryvale and Lackawanna this season) on Friday night should provide a decent barometer of where the team is, heading into the Koessler Center.

4. Wilson (B2) - A win at home against Roy-Hart on Thursday gives them a second straight N-O title.  I'll bet they'd trade league honors in a flash to have Tyler Truesdell back, because without him, the ultimate goal of a Class B2 title will take every ounce determination that team has.

5. Newfane (B1) - The Panthers can share the N-O title with the Lakemen by beating CSAT on Tuesday.

6. Tonawanda (B1) - With the ECIC IV title in hand, the Warriors are now just one win away from the bright lights at Buffalo State.

7. Tapestry Charter (C) - Locked up the number two seed in Class C.  A 15-3 season is a pretty remarkable turnaround for these guys, especially considering two of the losses were to McKinley and I-Prep.

8. Maple Grove (C) - I've heard all season that they're a better "team" because they are less reliant on one player.   After going independent last season, they returned to league play and won CCAA III.

9. Lackawanna (B1) - There's no shame in losing at home to Tonawanda, but after a great road win at Batavia, the Steelers are tough to gauge.

10. OTC Middle College (C) - The loss to City Honors puts the Kats in a likely scenario of winding up as the number four seed in Class C and needing to get past I-Prep to reach the Class C finals.

 

-centercourt

Comments

[TML1000]

So to update the AA seeding scenarios...if Jamestown can finish off with two wins this week, they will re-assume the #1 seed, giving the Falls the #2. As CC said, if North beats Frontier, they will be the #3. However, if they lose to Frontier, they could drop to #4 if McKinley wins out.

Things are still interesting in terms of the presumable 4, 5 and 6 seeds...very likely McKinley, Ken West and Lancaster in some order. If Lancaster wins its final game and avenges its loss to WSW, they will become the #4, regardless of what McKinley and KW post. Assuming Lancaster does win, McKinley will have to beat both Bennett and Tech to assume the #5 seed. If they do not win both, KW would be the #5 and McKinley would drop to a #6...and a possible matchup with North. Right now, Clarence is th #7 and N-W is the #8, but they will likely flip-flop, as Clarence's final game is away to Jamestown, while N-W hosts NT. The only way Lockport will not get the #9 is if they lose to GI and Frontier wins its remaining two league games.

[Patrick Moran]

From what I understand, at 5-3 in League Play, St. Mary's can pretty much wrap up the 3 seed in the Manhattan Cup with a win at Walsh tonight, as long as Timon doesn't win at Canisius on Friday. That would push Timon down to #4 and make for a very interesting semi-final matchup against the regular season winner.

Weird, in reality the path to the Manhattan Cup final will probably be easier finishing as the Number Two seed.. No disrespect to Dan Gill and the fine job he always does at St. Mary's, but Timon is a much harder out in a one-game scenario, even though they haven't passed a tough test yet this season.

[jackherlan]

Not true. Unless St. Mary's beats Timon, which they did not, they cannot be placed ahead of them. Timon will be 3 and St. Marys 4.

[Patrick Moran]

Is that for sure? Mary's is going to finish 7-3 in league play assuming they beat Walsh tonight and then Nichols, while Timon (if they lose to Canisius on Friday after beating Frannies tonight) is going to finish league play at 6-4.

[jackherlan]

Does not matter, I am pretty sure that because of the imbalanced schedule, none of the small schools may be seeded ahead of the large schools unless they defeated that team during the regular season.

[Keith McShea]

Jack is correct as per my discussions with Dan Gill early on this season about the wacky format.

[hoopster]

Wacky certainly, but wackiness is appropriate when Timon plays a large school schedule and St. Mary's does not.

Kudos to Joe's and Canisius by the way for their scheduling this year. Played some excellent out-of-league teams, which will have them as prepared as can be for a playoff run. Too bad the public schools remain so limited in their ability to schedule games. Unfortunately see no change on the horizon for them given the severe budget problem facing every level of government in NYS.

[jackherlan]

Part of the problem stems from an odd number of teams which means that unless we just play everyone twice there will be a different number of games for both divisions. This year the small schools play 12 while the large schools play 11 league games.

[Patrick Moran]

Yeah, Jack is right, just got off the phone with Dan Gill as well so I can clear up my confused head.

The new "Stipulation" after last year is a small school can't jump a large school in the seedings UNLESS they beat that large school head to head (ST. Mary's didn't)

Timon will VERY likely be the 3 seed (they have 3 league losses) while Canisius only has one (though they still are at St. Joes tonight and at home vs Timon on Friday). I'm not sure what would happen if Timon won out and Canisius lost out in terms of a tiebreaker for 2/3.

Of course, Canisius could beat Joe's tonight and Timon on Friday and then they'd and Joe's would have 1 league loss each (tiebreaker question again).

Wasn't there a coin flip to determine top seed last year as well that Nichols won? I think I remember that happening.

But what is pretty clear now is Mary's will be four, and play 5 Walsh (who they play tonight as well), St. Francis will be the 6, Niagara Catholic the 7 and O'Hara will face Nichols in the play-in game.

Thanks Jack.

[jackherlan]

Finally got one correct.

[TML1000]

The A-1 scenario is as follows:

There is a great divide between the top 5 teams(South, East, SH, Bennett and Tech) and the rest of the bracket.

South has already locked up the #1 seed, while Wil East can lock up the #2 seed with a win in either of their two remaining games. The 3, 4 and 5 seeds are still in the balance. Right now, Sweet Home is the #3 seed. They would lock up the #3 seed if they were to win their final two games, however, their final game is against Wil South, so that scenario is unlikely. Thus, if they go 1-1 over their last two games, it will depend on what Bennett and Tech do over their last two league games. Both city teams play McKinley and an opponent whom they should defeat(South Park and Lafayette). If neither beats McKinley, Bennett will be the #4 and Tech the #5 and they will play each other in the quarters. If one or both beat McKinley, they will very likely avoid each other in the quarters. So, both teams will be rooting for the other to beat McKinley and each will have extra incentive to beat McKinley themselves...as I will be rooting for at least one to get a win over McKinley.

To me, both those teams are far better than Sweet Home and it would be a shame if they had to go head to head in the quarters.

[Patrick Moran]

IF Canisius wins tonight and beats Timon on Friday and both the Crusaders are Joe's finish with one loss each, are we looking at a coin flip for the top seed for second straight year?

[hoopster]

You're right Pat, there was a coin flip.

Don't be so hard on yourself Jack. If I recall way back when you were a pretty accurate marksman on the court making more than you missed. Of course that was so long ago, my memory may have inflated your accuracy.

I agree TML. Although the section tries to seed teams in an equitable manner, there is always a certain amount of ridiculous seeding.

Happy to report I've made contact with one of Prep Talk's most valuable contributors, "from the front row." He has been conspicuous by his absence this year; been sorely missed. Anyway, looks like he may well be occupying his front row seat Friday night on Kenmore Ave. Good news indeed!!!!

[centercourt]

Yes.

[jackherlan]

I like your memory as it is now hoopster. Also good news on front row. There is/are tiebreaker(s) in place other than head to head but I am pretty sure none of them apply if we were to lose tonight and They won on Friday as well. Therefore, coin flip will certainly be in play.

[JohnFrederickPSU]

Coin flips are boring. Has anyone considered a best two out of three ROCK, PAPER, SCISSORS as a tie breaker? At least strategy would come into play.

[jackherlan]

I like it!!

[jackherlan]

Could we get Keith or CC to carry it live???

[hoopster]

I'm sure Joe's have plans in place so that the coin flip discussion will nothing but an academic one.

Any predictions for tonight's rivalry slugfest? If I was a betting man I'd go with Joe's, but since I'm not and given the nature of the rivalry I'll take the Crusaders in a close one. How's that for speaking out of both sides of my mouth???

Jack, kinda like the Alzheimers thing as well. I now say I was a great basketball player. Unfortunately have too many "friends" who remind me continually that I was nothing more than a stiff.

[Patrick Moran]

I'm live blogging every game I cover for the rest of the hoops season and playoffs starting tonight (site is accessbile by clicking my name). Last Saturday I was going nuts trying to find a link for Jamestown/Will North via live blog or audio feed because I couldn't make it out there, with no success.

I've already got the divorce attorney on retainer for all the games I'll be at over the next couple of weeks. I'm live bloggin em all with running stats, so if its a game Mr. McShea can't make because he has actual newspaper and other real responsibilities over the next few weeks, come check me out--

I been working hard trying to establish another solid source of immediate HS Hoops coverage. With the exception of a lot of area coaches and players, I been toiling underground.

Call me and BSD, McShea's illegitimate, slightly abused and drifting through life aimlessly, brother from another mother.

[Patrick Moran]

Actually, as CC will attest, my wife is a huge HS Hoops fans and often goes to see games, even if she doesn't know the teams and players well. I may not need that attorney afterall, though her patience is sure to be tried between now and mid-March.

[centercourt]

I love some of these comments today, from divorce attorneys to changing the tie breaker format.

The answer is yes, if it goes to Rock, Paper, Scissors, I'll cover it live. I've got Jack pegged for a scissors guy.

[jackherlan]

Don't worry hoopster you have LOTS of company. Since I am still (trying to) playing we often have conversations about the past and it turns out that we ALL are a lot better now." The farther away we are from it, the better we were."

[JohnFrederickPSU]

There may even be cardio benefits to the ROCK, PAPER, SCISSORS format. The elder statesman of the two coaches involved may favor that outcome. Is this where I insert a smiley face? (-: or is it :-)?

[Patrick Moran]

I am going to live blog Keith live blogging tonight. I'll bring updates everytime he pulls that I-Phone out to shoot video that I'm insanely jealous of.

I was going to stop at McKinley beforehand since it isn't too far away and should also be a good game, but I got a feeling if I don't get to the St. Joe's gym early enough I may have to park about 10 blocks farther than I want to walk.

[jhsfan]

All of Jamestown's home games can be listened to online through the radio website - www.wjtn.com

[Patrick Moran]

Now you tell me!

Joking, JHS. Thank you

[Lucky13]

JF,- some mad keyboard skills there. That's NO joke.