Ranking the small schools is no easy task

Voting in a high school basketball poll is supposed to get easier as the season goes on and results pour in.  The large school poll looks like it will be fairly straight forward, barring any major upsets before week's end.  The placement of teams 3, 4, & 5 and then 7, 8, 9, & 10 will vary among pollsters, but I think the top ten should be pretty clear cut by this weekend.

 

But the small school poll is an entirely different story.  After slotting Olean at the top, the grand debate can begin. 

 

Knowing that I have a ballot due this Sunday after a couple of weeks off, I tried to get an early jump on things by examining the results since the last Buffalo News polls were published on December 20, 2011.  Based on everything that has happened since the last polls, there are at least a couple teams who have made a strong case for poll consideration, but will get the snub.  Beyond some teams being left off entirely, I'd be willing to bet that the order of 2-10 is different on all ten ballots.

 

Last season, no ranked large school lost to a small school the entire season.  It has already occured three times this year - St. Mary's beat Hutch-Tech, Newfane beat Williamsville South, and East beat Riverside.

 

I have an idea of which direction I'm going as of today, until the games on Friday screw everything up again.  But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks about how the latest results should impact things.

 

Here's a look at how the small schools were ranked in the Buffalo News poll from December 20th and some things to consider since the last ballots were tallied on December 18th:

1. Olean

 2. St. Mary's lost at Depew and at St. Joe's - they beat Hutch-Tech, Alden, & City Honors

3. OTC/MEC  lost to St. Joe's, beat Buffalo Arts

4. Depew lost at Amherst, then beat Lancaster, St. Mary's, & Maryvale

5. MST Seneca beat Olmsted

6. Tonawanda improved to 8-0 with wins against Roy-Hart, East Aurora, and West Seneca West

7. East lost at St. Joe's and beat Riverside

8. Archbishop Walsh lost to Olean, beat CSAT, Pioneer, and Nichols

9. Panama lost a pair to teams from PA in a tourney, beat Brocton and Ripley

10. Silver Creek beat Salamanca and Cassadaga Valley

 

One thing is for sure, if St. Joe's were a small school, they'd be at least second with recent wins over St. Mary's, OTC/MEC,  and East.

 

Teams that weren't ranked include:

Newfane - won the Williamsville Holiday Tournament with wins at Williamsville South and against St. Francis, then lost to Albion.

Dunkirk - lost by three against Olean, beat Brocton and Frewsburg.

I-Prep - beat Tapestry and Emerson.

Maple Grove  - beat Pine Valley.

 

Digest all those results and tell me which teams should be ranked and in what order. 

Should St. Mary's fall for losing to Depew?  Does Tonawanda get a bump for being unbeaten and winning the West Seneca Tournament? How much stock do you put into East beating Riverside? Were the two big wins enough for Newfane, or was the loss against Albion a deal breaker (and what do we even know about Albion? 3-1 vs. Section V)? Is a close loss as good as a lack of quality wins for Dunkirk?  There are 14 teams listed above.  Which four should get the snub and why?

 

 

-centercourt

Comments

[TakeItToTheHole]

I definitely think Dunkirk should be ranked with their wins and very close loss to Olean, who is one of the top teams in WNY in my opinion, regardless of school size. Not sure you can rank Newfane just because of the uncertainty of the N-O. I saw Albion play against Alexander, wasn't impressed at all. Newfane looked great in the Will South tourney but then lost to Albion. Medina looked like they might be the team to beat with three early wins including one over Lockport and Lonnie Taylor dominating competition, but then played a terrible first half against Niagara Catholic and lost by 1 to a team that Newfane had already beaten. That's not even mentioning CSAT who in my opinion has the best player in the league, Darnell Carson, or Wilson who always plays everyone tough and has a good player themselves in Tyler Martin. Things might clear up after a few more league games. I don't think St. Mary's should be moved down, due to their overall body of work. One team I'm not sure about is MST Seneca. Frasier is a very good player and they have a great record obviously, but the teams they've played are pretty weak. Until at least another week goes by, I'm afraid you won't have an easier task of ranking these teams.

[Blue Zone]

If you saw Newfane play South then there is no way you cant rank them because they owned that game. And take the Albion loss with a grain of salt. Klumpp benched Geise and Seefeldt for the first quarter in that game for something they did and they fell behind early.

[TML1000]

The big question is how pollsters with rationalize thier positioning. Will they base more off of a team's entire body of work or more so off of how a team is playing lately? Personally, I tend to lean somewhat towards the how-are-they-doing-lately school of thought. To me, polls are snap shots throughout a year of how teams are playing at a given time...if i were asked to seed teams in an NCAA style tournament, I may rank differently.

With that said...

1) Olean - should be here all season
2) Depew - Mary's may have a better overall body of work, but the fact is Depew beat them head to head. I would rank Mary's wins over Tech, Alden and Honors similarly to Depew's wins over Lancaster and Maryvale. Depew has improved a fair bit since the North game.
3) St. Mary's - Balanced, solid team...lacking leader to put them in top tier. Quality wins...losses to two team ahead of them.
4) OTC - not as much to gauge off of than most team. They played solidly against Joe's...have depth advantage over Seneca and Prep.
5) Tonawanda - Squeaker over R-H was surprising, but came back with good win against EA...WSW not strong opponent but they did their job.
6) East - Had about two weeks off and they must have put in some work. Win over sure-fire top 10 large school Riverside cancels out some of poor play in first month for me. Their length will cause problems for any team they face for rest of season.
7) Dunkirk - no big time wins but Olean game is enough for me to put them this high. Up tempo game will once again cause problems for most teams in league.
8) Walsh - have some better wins than Dunkirk, but from what I saw of them, they do not have much outside of Whepley.
9) Newfane - Two recent wins over competent large schools can not be erased with one loss to relatively unknown league opponent.
10) Silver Creek - have continued to win...not sure how "good or bad" the Panama losses were.

[centercourt]

Nice job TML.

[TML1000]

So I would leave out Seneca, Panama, Prep and Grove...I would throw Medina, CSAT and Wilson near that mix as well.

[cattcobball]

Portville is a team that needs to keep noted of. they played Olean tough and lost by 9.Walsh has players other then Whelpy. They will finish in the top 5 and whelpy has a chance to break section 6 scoring record or come awfully close.

[centercourt]

Great point about Portville. Based on their results, they are probably not quite a top ten team, but the Panthers should definitely be in the discussion of teams on the bubble.

All four loses were to good opponents (Cuba Rushford, Silver Creek by six, and Olean & Walsh by nine). Like MST Seneca and Walsh, Portville owns a win over Pioneer, they won by double-digits at Randolph, and beat Frewsburg by the same margin as Dunkirk.

[What a Joke]

Unreal that Keith McShea has time to blog and tweet every 30 seconds about Chad Kelly but hasn't had time in 2 months to post a basketball schedule. HS bball coverage way down this year. Keith is trying to shove football down our throats. Basketball is more popular around here.

[wny hooper]

What about Cleveland Hill ?

[centercourt]

I'll see them tomorrow against Tonawanda. There's another team sitting on the bubble after a very solid 7-1 start including wins over Akron, Oracle Charter, and Lackawanna, along with routs of Hamburg, Lancaster, and Alden. They could find their way into the poll by beating the Warriors.

See how hard it is to pick just ten and rank them? I knew TML would step up and put himself out there.

[Panthers]

Hey, I was just checking Canisius on Maxpreps and realize there must be an error in their record. Maxpreps shows a 5 win 3 losses record when in fact Canisius has had 4 losses since the start of the season. Losses to Dallas Jesuit, Aquinas, Tampa Jesuit, and Bellarmine.
It is only fair that the correct record be recorded on Maxpreps since the ranking is based on what the record is. The Bellarmine game is not being recorded but all successive wins are on record. There is no info on that loss. Must be a clerical error!?! Someone needs to make the correction ASAP.

[TML1000]

The maxpreps ranking formula is questionable, at best, to begin with.

[TML1000]

Regarding the large poll, who are your clear cut 9/10 teams? There is Falls and Canisius; Timon, J'town, Joe's, McKinley; Riverside and KW. Beyond that, I'm not sure there are any locks for the top 10. Tech could return to lock status if they defeat, or come very close, East tonight. I suppose South could retain their spot by default...after the Newfane loss they have close wins over North and Iroquois. Personally, I'd give the spot to EA...they do not really have a good win but they have beat everyone they should have beaten, with a very close loss to Tonawanda. Clarence, Wil East, Frontier, Frannies, North, NT and Cheektowaga are probably in that next tier on the outside looking in.

[centercourt]

I'll give you my top ten on Monday after I send in the votes. I'll give you one hint - there's a spot up for grabs tonight at 7:30.

[TML1000]

Yea...the winner of that game will certainly stake a big claim for 9/10...especially if it is Clarence.

[Lucky13]

Will. East has win over Clarence and even though the 3rd qtr lead & final were only by 2,they were in control for most of that 2nd half at one point having a 12-15 pt lead and in the 4th before the end lead was in the 6-8 pt range. Keenan missed 2 free throws at the very end.
They're 7-2. Lost to St.Joes. They lost to Will. North in their first game but I think if they played them anytime in the last two weeks they would have won.
They beat Nichols by 12 and Lockport by 9. As a contrast, StFran beat Nichols by 9.
Will. East plays Iroq tonight.

[Ball]

what games will you be at tonight MR.centercourt?

[centercourt]

I tried to catch some of Hutch-Tech @ East, but the JV game went so late that I never saw any of it. I left to be at Clev Hill, who hosted Tonawanda, by the 6:30 tipoff.

[McShea is God]

Saw Jamestown 2nite that team can SHOOT! They must have scored 70 points outside the paint. They shoot like that against Falls in March - watch out. Yes Falls is more talented, but give Jamestown 10 extra points 4 coaching and if they hit those 3's I could c them winning that game.

Reggie is ok but would b the WORST player of the year since M Parker in 03. Most years would not even sniff 1st team. I think CC is wrong somebody will emerge during playoffs and we will give it 2 him.

[Panthers]

McShea is God, you are really a confused person if you feel Reggie would be the worst POY. Obviously your hate on him continues when he is clearly by far the most talented player in WNY. Show my a comparable player doing what he does and with the huge upside all the D1s see in him. Last your POY pick was Stan Weir and you wanted the POY just handed to him. How wrong you have been about that.! If you think Weir scoring 40 on a team that barely scored 32 points in a game is a feat then you will keep eating crow.

You also predicted Joes to lose to Canisius 3 times this season. Well that remains to be seen but if your POY pick is any indication of your confusion you will be eating crow once again. My suggestion is that you stay quiet if nothing is working out for you. Leave this blog for those who have a sense for real b-ball.

[McShea is God]

Ya 'Panthers' nothing is working out 4 me. My son, my family, being retired at 40. If only I could have switched lives with u! And I thought I had a great life up until now. Thanks 4 letting me know I am really a loser. I am so bummed out!

U wanna fight? I'll knock u out in 2 seconds. And I was wrong Canisius will only beat Joe's 2 times this season cause Joe's won't make the M Cup final so my bad. I am now on a mission 2 make sure Reggie does NOT get Player of the year. Just like I didn't thing/want Connor R 2 b on 1st team last year. How did that work out?

2 say he is 'by far' the most talented player is simply not true. Isnt' Stan ALREADY SIGNED 2 a D1 team? Or r u saying Reggie is an idiot? Maybe u have something against black coaches? Reggie may get a D1 ride, he may not. Tom Parotta has 'offered' 2 a 6-4 Power forward (no not Charles Barkley) so anything is possible. How is that guy still coaching btw!!!

Sam E on Olean is better than Reggie. He is a clumsy player. I have ATTENED more college games than u could have possibly watched on TV and Reggie is just ok. That's all I am saying. Also since he isn't American he should not even be allowed 2 make 1st team. Like a Rookie in baseball that came from Japan!

Only 8 more months and Obama will b out!!! Ha I love this blog. It's fun...time 2 go back 2 my loser life Panther. Maybe I'll c if my Dad will let me move into his basement 2 complete my failure

[Panthers]

What in the world are you talking about??? Man you have issues that our little blog here cannot help you with. I am glad to see you are an accomplished person who has watched alot of college basketball, traveled the world, voted the President out of office, and danced with the basketball Gods. Let the kids play!!

[McShea is God]

Ok 'Panther' here we go. I am the bad guy and u r all 4 just 'letting the kids play'....I coach my son's 8 year old team, we have a blast, and I let them play. Let me quote YOU so u can c why I responded 2 u:

You called me a 'confused person' who 'hates on Reggie' then YOU RIPPED A KID (Stan Weir in case u 4 got) - wait weren't u all 4 'letting the kids play' (everyone please look up 2 c Panther ripping a 17 year old boy)...said I will 'eat crow' 4 picking Canisius 2 sweep Joe's (yes what a crazy thought that would never happen) then you said 'stay quiet' if 'nothing is working out for you' then you closed with 'leave this blog for those that have a real sense for bball'

SO THAT IS WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT. I was responding to YOU. Did I clear it up 4 u? Do u not realize people can scroll up?

Your insults continue in your latest post with 'man you have issues that our little blog here cannot help you with' - first of all it's NOT YOUR BLOG. Then after ripping poor Stan u come out with 'let the kids play'. You are a JOKE. Please tell CC your real name so we can fight. Meet me Tuesday night at W North I'll b sitting with CC we can go outside and settle this. After we 'let the kids play' of course.

PS - Reggie is NOT getting Player of the Year now because of your post. 4 guys on Canisius alone r better and at least 3 on Falls.

[Sal]

hey centercourt can you delete the last few posts its hurts the blogs integrity. lets keep personal stuff out and you can get your point across without bashing kids

[jackherlan]

I'm with Sal. CC I know your intentions are pure, however, I can't say that of otherS. I know others have their own reasons and opinions. Opinions are fine, the reasons may be questionable. It is again disappointing that it can't just be about the basketball.

[McShea is God]

Look Sal and Jack u r both good guys. LOOK at my ORIGINAL POST that I was attacked on. I mostly was talking about Jamestown and how if they hit from the outside they would have a SHOT against Falls. I DID say Reggie if he was PLAYER OF THE YEAR would b the worst since 2003. LOOK at the list since 03...Harris, Flynn, Will, etc...I don't think there is ANY disputing that. I wouldn't call saying u would b the 'worst Player of the year' ripping a kid like Panther did Stan. I like Stan, maybe I am a bit too big of a fan.

But if someone comes out and rips my post I WILL respond to it. I don't think liking Canisius and some of their players better than Joe's this year makes me a bad person.

[Panthers]

So I guess you are saying it is okay for you to rip other peoples kids but not the ones you like. You opened the door with your opinions. I am just giving you mine. Sal and Herlan are right that the personal stuff we will leave out going forward. Sorry if I have dirtied the pages against McShea is God.

Great blog though and once again "Let the kids Play." We will see what happens in the end ultimately none of our opinions will matter one bit.

[TML1000]

Great stuff guys....always good to engage MIG...gotta keep him on his toes.

[Walter W.]

MIG, as a pollster for the large school poll, you should be above getting involved in petty little fueds with other commenters on this blog.

For all your self-proclaimed personal and professional successes, it is astounding how quickly you want to fight someone who challenges your comments and how openly bitter you are. Does it come from being vertically challenged?

Where did Panthers say it was his blog?

Let me answer that for you. He didn't, and a person who can maintain a rational thought in his head would see that in his comment. He said OUR BLOG, and that includes anyone who wishes to comment.
On a more positve note it was good to see some honesty from one of your earlier posts, "I think CC is wrong somebody will emerge during playoffs and we will give it 2 him." when discussing POY and by extension, 1st team ALL WNY. Thanks for comfirming that those honors are reserved for players who are blessed by TEAM success in the playoffs and that you view the regular season as an inconvienence leading up to the playoffs.

[Mary Jo]

I agree it is truly sickening that people like Walter W rip into MIG just because she is a woman. People like you have tried to set us back before but it won't wor Walter and Panther we are here to stay. Just because MIG thinks Canisius is better than St Joe's like every voter on the poll one of the Joe's coaches using 'Panther' attacks her opinions and tries to push RA as player of the year when there is a good chance his team won't be playing in March. Yes in Basketball - with five players on the floor - if a guy is that good he should at least be able to get to shall we say - at least the Manhattan Cup final. If he can't lead his team to one playoff win, yes he should not be considered for player of the year.

And Walter W I hope you can look your wife of daughter in the eyes the way you treat woman like MIG. Sickening.

[Andrew Webster]

Haha, if MIG is a woman..... having seen "her" many times, she's one ugly woman!