Who should be #1?

On Sunday night, I'll send an email to Keith McShea at the Buffalo News ranking the top ten large and small schools in WNY.  I'm just one of ten pollsters who's ballot will get tallied to form the polls for boy's basketball.  It's a routine you get into throughout the season, except for the holiday break at the end of December, when the polls take a hiatus for a couple weeks.  During this time, I follow the holiday tournaments, key nonleague games, and early league games, then refer back to my previous ballot and make necessary adjustments based on the results during the poll's holiday hiatus.

 

Since casting my last ballot for the Buffalo News poll published on December 18th, there have been some significant results that could potentially shift the results of the most important area of both polls, the top.  In its season opener, Niagara Falls had knocked off Bishop Kearney, 52-47 in overtime, a win that helped the Wolverines secure the top spot in the poll.  NFHS received six first place votes, while the Canisius had four votes.  Four days later, the Crusaders dropped their opener to Olean, and Falls became a unanimous number one the following Tuesday, receiving all 10 first place votes.  Then on Tuesday, December 18th, Canisius defeated Bishop Kearney, 69-50,  in a highly anticipated game between two of the top schools in the far west region of New York. 

 

One major difference between the Kings team that Falls faced from the one Canisius saw was the absence of Syracuse bound Chinonso Obokoh. The 6-10 forward manned the paint at the Wolv-Arena, but didn't even make the trip to Canisius due to a foot injury.

 

Then over the break, an even bigger result made its way to Twitter and then to the Buffalo News Scoreboard page...Nichols defeated Olean, 66-57.  The same Huskies team that beat Canisius lost to the number seven small school?  

 

Well, not exactly the same team that beat Canisius.

 

We quickly learned that Sam Eckstrom, the 6-7 junior who's name is routinely thrown around as a Division I prospect, was out of the lineup for Olean.  Eckstrom was still recovering from a shoulder injury originally suffered in the win over Canisius, and then later reaggrevated in a subsequent game.   

 

A situation aimilar to this one occured back in 2010, when unanimous number one and then large school, Nichols, lost a pair of games to Timon and Canisius after losing guard Ron Canestro to injury.  That prompted Keith McShea to move Nichols to #3 on the "How The News voted" post that followed, and he offered this explanation for moving them down two spots:

"3. Nichols [10-4] [last week: 1] - Just to make sure everyone realizes this -- with Canestro, Nichols wins at Timon (and Canisius, after my ballot was filled out) and is still No. 1 by a full-court shot. Period. But the reality is that they are without Canestro, and despite Regan being an absolute force lately, they are a different team right now."

 

Canestro later returned to the Vikings and helped lead the team to the Class A Federation Championship after a resounding victory over Dajuan Coleman-led Jamesville-DeWitt in the final.

 

So now my question for all of you is what to do with this information.  Do we assume the games would have gone much differently if the big men with D-I talents played?  Do we rank the teams based strictly on the end results?  Do we create a double-standard, and say Canisius would have won regardless, but not Nichols? Or vice-versa?  Would it be fair to Nichols to rank them behind Olean after they just made a road trip to Cattaraugus County and beat the Huskies at St. Bonaventure?  Did the Nichols win make its game against Canisius on February 5th any more intriguing?

 

Who should be #1 and why?  I would love to hear from some of you as to the rationale behind how you would be voting. Or if you are a pollster, you could tell us how you will be voting.

 

I know how I'll be voting in each poll and when 2013 Poll Ballots - Week 3 is published on Monday morning, you can read the logic I applied to make my decision.  

 

-centercourt

@centercourt42

Comments

[Nichols]

CC...I have watched every Nichols game this year, and am a big fan. That being said, besides a few missed free throws, the team played a flawless game against Olean. Everything Coach Reinholtz and Coach John have been working on with them clicked, and it showed. The team is talented and still somewhat young (there are 3 key seniors), and will win many more games this year, but will also continue to have some growing pains. Are they better than Olean? They were that night, even with Sam I think the game would have been close, perhaps even an OT game. Which in itself says a ton for the Nichols team. Most people would have thought a 20 pt loss would have been a good showing. I think it would be logical to put them right above or right below Olean, and you could make a case for both. Nichols has a tough week next week with Timon(at Timon), Niagara Catholic, and Aquinas, and while the team is confident, and playing the system well, those will be tough games. One thing is for sure, we will know soon how good the Nichols team can be, and I am excited to watch. If they proved anything last week it was that they will be able to play with any team in the MMA, they have size and aggressive guards who play lock down defense. This is going to be fun!

[centercourt]

Great commentary. Thank you.

[TML1000]

To me, polls are a snapshot of the landscape of the encompassing area at the CURRENT time. I poll logic varies, as many see polls as more of a "body of work," basis to rank from.

Given that logic, I would put Nichols at #1 in the next poll. Do I think Olean would have defeated Nichols had Eckstrom been in the lineup...of course. However, he wasn't, and you cannot play the "what if" card in high school athletics...the season is just too short. Obviously this is different from an example such as if the Heat lost to the Wizards without LeBron in the lineup. Clearly, nobody would be ranking the Wiz ahead of Miami.

Now, if Eckstrom retruns to the lineup and to form over the next severel weeks and once again is a dominant factor, my poll would likely change. The same goes for if the level of Nichols' play dips over the coming weeks. In all, to me the fun of the polls is fitting teams into the puzzle every week. For those that do play the "what if" scenario, these things always seem to work themselves out in the end. If Eckstrom returns and Olean once again makes a trip to Glens Falls, Olean will very likely end up #1 in the poll. If Nichols continues to improve and posts more victories over top teams in the MMA and makes a good run in the playoffs, they will also make a strong case.

[centercourt]

I'll be tweeting updates from Clarence at Williamsville North tonight. Game starts at 7:30 pm.

https://twitter.com/centercourt42

[centercourt]

A very disturbing story involving an All-Centercourt Honorable Mention selection from the past two seasons:

http://www.buffalonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130103/CITYANDREGION/130109814/1002

[Gus Buster]

That is disturbing and very sad.

[thats my boy]

Gus...i wrote a different post and erased it because i gave it some thought and it is a tradgety for all involved but at some point you have to have the mentallity to say ...this is so wrong.we have seen it before about 10 years ago i think most will recall and that man has turned things around last i knew.........>>>>>but my other thought is that as i read all these stories of games and upsets and big dogs going down...all have the same ring to them....when missing a great player they are not the team as advertised so to speak,and i know thats true in most sports but it really seems to make the big difference between this big games and who comes out on top....what it would be for a healthy crop of kids for the year....the shape some of these guys are in is super and im starting to think some of the more taleted and bigmen may not be preping their bodies for the level of play we are seeing from alot of schools that are suprising some teams.....anyone can win on any night.....and my JV football coach at Newfane told me that years ago...and he knows a bit about backetball....his name is John Beilein and he has his team at the top....from Newfane to the Michigan wolverines...i was lucky to have had him coach me.....may you all stay healthy,play hard,play fair,and enjoy the game....thats why we play it and watch it.ALL THE BEST TO YOU.

[a fan]

In the Olean-Nichols game, Nichols out rebound Olean 47-19. Even with Sam they would have won. It would have been a 2 point game or Overtime, but they still would have won. The tough defense they played(holding Bathurst to only 3 points in the second half off a bank three with 30 seconds left) and wanting it more helped them push themselves over to win the game. With the big men stepping up that game they would have overwhelmed Sam. I don't think it would be fair to Nichols if you put them behind Olean because they wanted it more and they worked harder then Olean in the game.

[PJB]

I agree with TML, Polls are a point in time. Each week presents a different dynamic and has to be evaluated on the evidence available. Since Nichols won they should be ranked ahead of Olean (not necessarily #1)for now. If in future weeks Olean becomes dominant against good opponents or Nichols struggles in their MMA games the positioning can be re-evaluated. It will be a little bit more difficult for Olean to make up ground now that league play has started and they have few opportunities against top ranked teams until the sectionals. Nichols will have ample opportunities to prove they belong since they will play various ranked large schools as part of league play

[McShea is God]

Olean stays #1 because with Sam they win. Simple.

Also anyone who votes Clarence ahead of Will North because they beat them by 1 at North yet ignores the fact they got crushed at home by North is an idiot.

Canisius, Falls, Jamestown, Joe's, McKinley, North, Clarence, Timon, K West, Amherst. EASY Top 10.

[Simple]

So does that mean Ekstrom is back playing again?

[something to consider]

Wait till after North at Jamestown tomorrow before deciding on North, Timon, Clarence order.

Clarence also lost big to Jamestown already. Timon only 2 point loss at Jamestown without Williams.

[Fan]

North vs Jamestown. Tomorrow
Clarence vs McKinley Wednesday
Ken West vs Niagara Falls Tuesday
Timon vs Nichols Monday???

[something to consider]

North at Jamestown only one before next ballots are submitted.

[something to consider]

Small school pollsters: EA beat CSAT and Maryvale(tonight) and only lost to Amherst on Belton's loooong running 3 off glass at buzzer since last poll.

[Not true]

Diagree that Clarence should be behind North, Clarence is getting better as the season goes on. Polls are a snapshot of the current way teams are playng. Sure the polls will change but the voters should vote as is not as was. Give teams the credit they deserve when they are playing well. You also can not compare how one team plays an opponent compared to how another team plays the same opponent. Different day different night. Too many extrinsic factors looking at it that way. Vote on who beats who at that point in the season. If teams keep winning they should also keep getting votes.

[More than MMA in WNY]

At something to consider...EA's loss to Amherst was a nothing short of a one sided officiating mess favoring EA. The worst officiating I have ever seen. Some of Amherst's best players benched due to bad calls. Different refs and there is a completely different game with Amherst winning by a much larger lead. If you think it was a fluke that EA lost to Amherst, think again.

[something to consider]

I don't think it was a fluke at all. You misunderstood me. I think Amherst is a better team, was only saying it was a good outing for EA in consideration for the next small school poll.

[something to consider]

Don't blame refs,though...bad habit.

[centercourt]

I'm here in Jamestown for game against Williamsville North. I'll be tweeting updates throughout:

https://twitter.com/centercourt42

[McShea is God]

Man u r a bigger fan than me no way I could miss NFL playoffs 4 a HS game. Looks like u saw a big upset! Rematch Jan 29th should b fun. For now...

Canisius, Falls, Will North, Jamestown, St Joe's, McKinley, Clarence, Timon, Ken West, Amherst.

Small schools will b hard. Again unless u just pretend Will North didn't crush Clarence in the 1st meeting nobody in my Top 10 order lost 2 a team ahead of them.

[Yale Cup]

Just got out of work and saw the proposal to extend game reductions for hoops for 4 more years is on the table for the January meeting. Read here to see what you can do. this is absurd. Ohio just went from 20 to 22 games.

http://bcany.org/downloads/NY%20Hoop%20Dec.12.pdf

or try bcany.org and read the December newsletter.
Let's see what we can do to pressure ADs and Superintendents to bring back the games. the cost is minimal.

also MIG, your Mr Basketball nominations are due and the end of the month. see above newsletter.