Poll Ballots - 2016 - Week 5

 

 (Niagara Catholic won a loose ball scramble for the last spot on my ballot this week / Photo by Buffalo News)

 

 As a pollster for the Buffalo News, I'm asked to send in my weekly ballots ranking the top ten large and small schools.  The polls are based on games played through Saturday of each week.  Here's a look at how I see them and some of the rationale used to get there.

 

Large Schools

1. Park (MMA) - Coming off double-digit victories over St. Joe's & St. Mary's, heading into a week where they'll visit Walsh on Tuesday, host St. Francis Thursday, and travel to Erie for a MLK tournament over the weekend.

2. Canisius (MMA) - After getting pushed at Timon, needing to score the last four points over the final 36 seconds to pull it out, the Crusaders could do no wrong in a rout of St. Joe's on Friday.  After a game with Niagara Catholic this week, Canisius faces McKinley in the 'Game of the Week' at the MLK Classic this Saturday.

3. Amherst (A2) - We've already reached the point in the season where the remaining regular season games should all see the Tigers as heavy favorites, based on where Amherst has been in the polls this season, who they've already beaten, and where they have their sites set on reaching.  

4. McKinley (A1) - The week is finally here when we'll get a real gauge of where the Macks are at.  While they've been crushing teams by 32.7 points per game, they've only played one team ranked between the large & small school poll - East at their place.  Middle College visits on Wednesday, before the big game on Saturday against Canisius.

5. Williamsville South (A1) - Picked up a pair of league wins this week in ECIC II, but lost over the weekend by 20 at Aquinas - a team that has beaten Lockport by 46, Timon by 40, & at St. Joe's by 21.

6. Niagara Falls (AA) - Rolled over Lockport down the stretch last week to move into first place in the NFL standings.  Will look to sweep the season series against Kenmore West this week.

7. Timon (MMA) - Since losing to Starpoint by three at the ADPRO Challenge, the Tigers have played like a top ten team in wins over Williamsville North, North Tonawanda, & St. Francis, along with giving Canisius its closest local game this season.  They'll get another shot at Aquinas on their court this week, and visit St. Joe's on Friday night in what is always a great matchup.  

8. St. Joe's (MMA) - Games against Cardinal O'Hara, Wlash, and Timon await the Marauders this week, which should seem like a sharp contrast to road games at Park & Canisius from last week.

9. Kenmore West (AA) - Look who's debuting in the poll this week.  There's a lot to like about the Blue Devils team that is buying in, especially the way they handled their business at Lockport on Friday.  Huge game at home with Niagara Falls this week - they'll need a win for any realistic hope of earning a share of the NFL crown.

10. Williamsville North (AA) - The Spartans have no bad losses this season, but do have wins at Jamestown and Orchard Park, which have North sitting in first place in ECIC I.  If they can win Tuesday night's game at Lancaster, they will have beaten the top three teams in their league on the road.

 

Small Schools

1. Olean (B1) - Got my first look at Olean this week, then took a second look two nights later.  After 400 miles, I can say they are talented, but it's their team chemistry that will carry them to Glens Falls if they maximize their potential.  I haven't seen a team that moves the ball better this year.  They picked up wins over Fredonia and Jamestown last week, and will host Maryvale on Saturday.

2. St. Mary's (MMA) - I was planning on moving Walsh up to number two in the event that St. Mary's knocked off last week's number two, Health Sciences.  But after witnessing the way the Lancers did the Falcons, and then competing with Park two nights later, St. Mary's deserved this spot.

3. Walsh (MMA) - The Eagles took care of Nichols handily last week, and then got out of North Tonawanda with a win on Saturday afternoon.  There's been some spirited debate in Olean this season as to who the best small school is in that city, as Walsh feels they could beat the Huskies, given the opportunity.  They host Park tonight, visit St. Joe's on Wednesday, and host Niagara Catholic on Friday.  For what it's worth, I think the Huskies would be 2-1 over that three game stretch.

4. Health Sciences (B2) - A heavy dose of reality was just what Falcons' coach Ty Parker was looking for this season when he designed his schedule, and that's what Health Sciences got in road games at Park & St. Mary's.  The challenges continue this week, when the Falcons play at South Park.

5. Middle College (C2) - The Kats hopes of winning the Yale Cup this season will go through McKinley, and Round One is this Wednesday night at Mack High.  Middle College also plays Cheektowaga on Saturday in the MLK Classic, which should hold a high entertainment value.

6. East (C1) - After a pair a lopsided league wins last week over Hutch-Tech & Bennett, the Panthers host South Park tonight in a very intriguing Yale Cup I game.  They will be over .500 after this week's games, and maybe just maybe, the comical state rankings will include them among the top schools in Class C.

7. East Aurora (B1) - Dropped a close game at Cheektowaga this week, but bounced back nicely with a win over Maryvale.  The Blue Devils face more large schools than small schools in their schedule.

8. Tapestry (C1) - The Thunderhawks won an exciting game against Randolph at the United Way Showcase in Jamestown over the weekend, the second time they've beaten the Cardinals this season.  They host Cardinal O'Hara on Friday night in what should be a battle.

9. Fredonia (B2) - The Hillbillies showed on Thursday night at Olean that they can be in any game, thanks to the way they defend and play together.  They pushed the Huskies to their closest game of the season and then held Silver Creek to a season-low 34 points on Saturday.

10. Niagara Catholic (MMA) - I was regretful for not voting Niagara Catholic in last week, after realizing that they had beaten the same Harborcreek team that Fredonia lost to.  I looked closely at last week's results and decided to find room for both Fredonia & Niagara Catholic, but gave the Hillbillies the edge, coming off a better showing at Olean than the Patriots had in a loss to St. Francis.  I was the only pollster to throw Niagara Catholic a bone this week, and with games against Canisius, St. Mary's, & Walsh coming up, they'll probably need a win in at least one of those to remain here next week.

 

-centercourt

 

Comments

[Ballislife]

What is your reasoning for having park above Canisius? A close game with timon? Park would lose to aquinas.

[centercourt]

It's not like I just made switch, I opened with Park at #1 in the preseason and haven't changed that.

My reasoning behind opening with Park at #1 - the only time they played last season, a home game for Canisius, it was an excellent game that was tied with one minute to play. Both teams went on from there to claim Federation Championships and neither lost after that game.

The slight edge, after a head-to-head battle at Canisius, went to the Crusaders.

Coming into this season, I started by looking at what each team lost.

-For Canisius, they lost CC MVP LaTerrance Reed and 3rd Team All-CC Josh Huffman - the best defensive player in WNY. The best backcourt in WNY graduated.

-For Park, they lost 3rd Team All-CC Derek Cheatom and Fifth Team All-CC Randy Golda.

* Both teams lost two exceptional talents, but I felt the Crusaders lost a little more.

Next, what did each team return?

- Both brought back 1st Teamers, Stafford Trueheart for Canisius and Jordan Nwora for Park.
- Canisius returned Justin Jones, Madut Ayiy, Will Atkinson, & Andrew Schake.
- Park returned Hunter Anderson, Kyle Harris, Ethan Cottrell, & Tony Ugboma.

* Returning talent looks like a draw to me.

Finally, what did each team gain?

- Canisius added Colby Moultrie from NT and had Jayce Johnson & Jerimiah Wagstaff ready to step up.
- Park added Noah Hutchins, Chris Efretuei, and had Joe Jones ready to step up.

* This was the area that pushed me in the direction of Park, especially considering the above mentioned backcourt that Canisius lost. Hutchins gives Park a true PG, allowing Harris & Anderson to play off the ball more. Efretuei is a near 7-footer, which is a major advantage in high school ball. Jones, who has yet to play any real minutes, will only make that team better when he's healthy - something he hasn't been this season.

So there's my long-winded answer. It doesn't mean I'm right, as I expect the Park/Canisius games to be epic. But I did put much thought into who should open as #1 and I haven't seen any reason to pull the plug on Park yet - they are undefeated with some very good wins. Canisius once again looks awesome, even better than I expected. The Crusader's close game with Timon and rout of Joe's are both games that I feel are really somewhere in the middle. What I mean is, I think Canisius is probably more than one point better than Timon and probably not really 36 points better than Joe's. No results from either Park or Canisius have come close to swaying the way I've been voting, I'm just waiting for them to settle things on the court and standing pat in the meanwhile.

[Ballislife]

Completely fair explanation just wanted to hear your thoughts on the teams. I think chs is really 36 points better than joes but I agree otherwise.
Thanks

[StateChamps2003]

Who remembers that time when City Honors only scored 11 points in a varsity game on their home court? #iwishididn't

[Sec6]

Seems like the message that school sent their athletic teams of "we don't care about you" by ignoring their state titles in volleyball and basketball is finally catching up to them. Its really disgraceful! The kids at that school are great students already, but when no one cares about anything else they accomplish, soon they stop caring. Did I mention what a disgrace? Someone should check their basketball program for a pulse!

[StateChamps2003]

Couldn't agree more.