Poll Ballots 2017 - Week 5

(Cardinal O'Hara has been all over its opponents during a six-game win streak)

 

As a pollster, I rank the top ten large and small schools in WNY each week.  These rankings are based on games played through Sunday of each week.  Here's how I see them and some of the rationale used to get there.

 

Large Schools

1. St. Francis (MMA) - If the Red Raiders don't deserve this spot for winning on the road against the top ranked team in NYS Class A, what else would they have to do?  Yes, they lost AT Canisius, who Park beat handily.  But that's their only local loss.  Park has only one local loss also and it happened at home.  I'll never understand the logic behind pollsters voting Park ahead of St. Francis this week. Maybe things change in the coming weeks. Maybe things change on Friday night when Timon visits the Red Raiders.  But this week, St. Francis deserves #1.  Otherwise, why even play the game?

2. Park (MMA) - During a recent stretch of big games, I saw a lot of Park.  Watched them against Canisius, Timon, South, & St. Francis in the last two weeks.  My takeaway is they need to stay motivated and play consistent.  They were so motivated to win at Canisius that they played a consistent game, as in two halves.  Their last three games were a tale of two halves.  

Here's the portion of the poll where you have to decide which loss or losses you're going to look past.  South just went into Amherst on Friday night and lost, yet remain here, three spots ahead of the Tigers.  Here's the explanation:  South and Amherst split this year.  The Billies won on a neutral court and Amherst won at home.  South won at Timon, who beat Amherst by 19.  Placing Amherst ahead of South would mean they would be two spots behind Timon after winning there.  Unless you put both ahead of Timon which doesn't jive when Amherst lost big to them.  The easiest way to approach this in my mind was to call the season split a wash and look at the common opponent, Timon.  Plus, the next two weeks could sort a lot more out because of the opponents South is about to face.

3. Williamsville South (A1) - The loss at Amherst was not the way the Billies wanted to start the five-game grind they just embarked upon.  The next four games: at St. Francis on Tuesday, then travel to Rochester to play UPrep, followed by Jamestown, & Aquinas next week.

4. Timon (MMA) - Had a great showing in Rochester against UPrep over the weekend, losing a five-point game to a top five NYS Class AA team that is loaded.  Big week ahead with a visit from #1 WNY small school Health Sciences, followed by a trip to St. Francis.

5. Canisius (MMA) - The Crusaders follow an idle week with a trip to Walsh on Monday, and then host St. Mary's & Bishop Kearney.

6. Amherst (A2) - I considered #5 for the Tigers, because no movement in the poll after a big win over Will South didn't seem right.  But that would have put them ahead of Canisius, which doesn't work because they are the only WNY team to beat St. Francis.  Regardless, Amherst is cruising right now with nine straight wins, including NT, McKinley, & South.  They'll look to add another to the win column in a trip to Jamestown on Tuesday.

7. Niagara Falls (AA) - The Wolverines got up big and then hung on to avenge an earlier loss to North Tonawanda.  Back in a tie for first place in the NFL, Falls is at Kenmore West on Friday.

8. North Tonawanda (A1) - The loss at Falls was the first for the Jacks this month.  They remain tied for first place in the NFL with Falls heading into a Friday night game with Niagara Wheatfield.

9. McKinley (A1) - I haven't cast a vote for the Macks all season, but after watching wins over Jamestown and Middle College, I felt like they were due.  They seem to be a team that is steadily improving and finding the right mix to play on the court.  Not good news for opponents in Yale Cup I or Class A1.

10. Jamestown (AA) - Bounced back from an overtime defeat at McKinley to take a pair of games over Frontier to keep pace with Lancaster at the top of ECIC I.  Amherst & Clarence come to time this week, before a trip to Rochester on Saturday to face Irondequoit, #6 in NYS Class A.

 

Small Schools

1. Health Sciences (B2) - After rolling their last three opponents, the Falcons are ready for a battle.  They should get a couple of those this week with road games at Timon on Tuesday and at Middle College on Thursday.

2. East Aurora (B1) - Rebounded from a loss at Cheektowaga last week with a win over Starpoint.  The Blue Devils are off until Friday when they travel to Depew..

3. Cardinal O'Hara (MMA) - The Hawks made it through the first round of play against the competition in MMA Class B without a loss.  More impressive is that only Nichols got within single digits of O'Hara in a nine-point loss.

4. Chautauqua Lake (C1) - The Thunderbirds were a 'Monty Shoemaker 3-pointer at the buzzer' away from sweeping the season series with Olean in CCAA I West.  Junior Devin Pope joined the 1,000-point fraternity last week.

5. Ellicottville (D) - Winners of five straight and all were league wins.  They have taken the last four wins by an average margin of 23 points.

6. Franklinville (D) - The Panthers face a pair of tests this week against teams that own quality wins this season.  Monday they are at Pioneer, who just defeated Depew by nine.  Then on Friday night, they travel to Burgard, who beat McKinley by six on January 11th.

7. Dunkirk (B1) - In their last two wins, the Marauders have scored 208 points, eclipsing 100 in both games, and the combined margin of victory was 121 points.  Clearly a team in need of a challenge.  As luck would have it, they're at Olean tonight.  The Huskies haven't lost a home game since 2011.

8. St. Mary's (MMA) - Solid week for the Lancers, picking up wins over St. Joe's & CCA, before taking an exciting rivalry game with Lancaster at the buzzer.  I tucked them right behind Dunkirk, who had a slightly less dramatic win over Lancaster this season on the road.

9. Middle College (B2) - Remained in first place in Yale Cup I, despite losing at McKinley, because they knocked East off.  The Kats head to Burgard on Monday night and then bring in the #1 small school in WNY, Health Sciences, on Thursday night.

10. East (C2) - They've been as high as #2 on my ballot, but two losses in their last three games in which they blew double figure leads is the reason for the free fall.  Better bring it on Tuesday - McKinley comes in looking to knock another team out of first place in Yale Cup I.

 

- centercourt

Comments

[StateChamps2003]

Glad to see that centercourt was one of the three pollsters that had St. Francis voted in as #1 FOR THIS WEEK. I have no idea what the other 6 pollsters are doing voting for Park and then whoever the pollster was that voted Amherst at #1 needs his voting ballot taken away...probably Dave Universal.

Also interesting to see the Buff News polls having Jamestown one spot ahead of McKinley, despite them losing to McKinley less than 7 days ago.

The News also has East at #5 and centercourt has them at #10. #5 is probably where they'll end up at the end of the season but as of right now they're lucky to be in top 10.

[Nelson Adams]

CC - I really enjoy reading your in depth analysis of what criteria you used to select each of the teams you voted for and why you put them in their particular spots in the rankings. Very nicely done.

[dose of reality]

We all know Park is the best team in around but like I said before they can beat themselves which they did against St. Francis. I would think you would have to drop Park for that loss and reward the team that beat them. Agree that whoever voted Amherst 1 should be booted from the poll. Its either complete ignorance or catholic bias. Either way get rid of him. I think Timon beats St. Francis this week and the argument is over anyway. But I bet if St. Francis wins they get more votes at #1 like that win suddenly made them worthy instead of beating Park. The paper should show how everyone votes, that might change things.

[section6observer]

Park has a better resume than Francis. There wins over Will south, Timon , Falls and Canisius is the best set of wins in the area. They lost to Francis in a great tightly contested game. Timon will beat St. Francis and thus putting Park back to one where they should be.